Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 3.049544 3.667147 4.359147 5.189182 6.154794 7.239651 8.547568
2025-05-11 2.138564 2.912278 3.873719 5.144782 6.768071 8.757679 11.364806
2025-05-18 1.527915 2.320306 3.396888 4.941581 7.071351 9.870500 13.786639
2025-05-25 1.116141 1.871209 2.982348 4.695063 7.216757 10.731483 15.922478
2025-06-01 0.883996 1.617974 2.776292 4.675130 7.630187 11.954843 18.631922
2025-06-08 0.723167 1.435027 2.632202 4.705904 8.094569 13.268555 21.567405
2025-06-15 0.592019 1.269486 2.479634 4.686484 8.458574 14.444441 24.380855
2025-06-22 0.460016 1.069155 2.226733 4.450487 8.425899 14.979026 26.228144
2025-06-29 0.382124 0.955358 2.106812 4.422848 8.728455 16.062693 29.019047
2025-07-06 0.318952 0.856455 1.995658 4.389925 9.008537 17.121233 31.839438
2025-07-13 0.295328 0.840546 2.047224 4.673719 9.890343 19.276430 36.661149
2025-07-20 0.263742 0.797872 2.034384 4.824503 10.533349 21.057889 40.961317
2025-07-27 0.240613 0.772478 2.058344 5.061357 11.381217 23.301519 46.287419
2025-08-03 0.203869 0.701367 1.965766 5.036650 11.707997 24.617652 50.056721
2025-08-10 0.164399 0.610594 1.808353 4.843349 11.664959 25.229394 52.577238
2025-08-17 0.130221 0.524059 1.642823 4.603139 11.489818 25.562276 54.588315
2025-08-24 0.111003 0.478774 1.575167 4.584221 11.788356 26.846084 58.492936
2025-08-31 0.096443 0.444474 1.530483 4.614698 12.198327 28.382990 62.988961
2025-09-07 0.082511 0.407453 1.470255 4.595686 12.490806 29.696863 67.125745
2025-09-14 0.065275 0.350555 1.337812 4.363744 12.253863 29.874690 68.980023
2025-09-21 0.055694 0.321072 1.283706 4.336587 12.506039 31.116451 73.090231
2025-09-28 0.047452 0.293882 1.230820 4.304231 12.740565 32.334701 77.225517
2025-10-05 0.045787 0.297105 1.282005 4.583178 13.792226 35.444247 85.541595